Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Good Night John-Boy.



Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com was on the Colbert report last night, and showed that his projections (from his site that touts "electoral projections done right") gave Obama an 89.5% chance to win the election. That was before last night's Presidential debate, so his odds are up to 90.5% today. So I'm going out on a ledge, and calling the election for him right now!

One of the post-debate pundits described Obama having a "one touchdown lead at the start of the fourth quarter", but a seven-point lead in national polls is more like a three touchdown lead. Fivethirtyeight currently shows Obama with a five percent lead in popular vote, but the statewide distribution of that lead translates to 150 electoral vote lead. Obama's tied or ahead in every battleground state, and if these polls and projections are accurate (no reason to think they aren't), there's nothing he can do to lose that three touchdown lead in the next four weeks.

That's President "That One" to you!

2 comments:

Miles said...

I sure hope all of that is right. But I'm not going to believe that Obama's won until the day after the election, or possibly not until the inauguration is complete. I thought it was in the bag for Kerry right through election night, and I won't be fooled again. Well, I'm sure I will be, but not when it comes to presidential election fol de rol.

2fs said...

Damn that Miles - posting my thoughts exactly but before I read your post.