I was talking with someone this week about the sad fate of our local Bay Area baseball squads (G's: 49-65, last place. A's: 56-60, recently resurging but out of the mix), and when he said he was looking forward to football starting this week, I said that I was also looking forward to the start of football.
It took me awhile to realize that he was talking about American football (which doesn't start til September, that pre-season stuff doesn't count), while I was talking about Association football (or "soccer" as it's better known over here). The English Premier League (EPL, or Barclay's Premiership in sponsor-speak) kicked off today, and I've been looking forward to August 11th ever since the A's started their post all-star slide out of contention. Watching these matches on FSC has been one of my weekend highlights since I got digital cable two years ago. Getting up early on Saturday to watch Aston Villa v. Liverpool now is like getting up early on Saturday to watch Looney Tunes was when I was a kid -- a reason to get up!
The EPL is one of the most top-heavy sports leagues in the world, where the majority of the publicity goes to four clubs: Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool. The "big four" spend and make more money than any other club, so they're pretty much guaranteed to take the top four spots in the league. The top four clubs in the EPL gain entry in the European Champions League the following year, and only a couple of clubs outside the big four have qualified for the Champions League in this century.
This makes the biggest battle in the league after the title the one for 5th place, below the big four. The four best EPL clubs that don't qualify for the Champions League gain a berth in the UEFA cup, which gives more revenue and exposure to the teams. The clubs just outside the big four are fairly evenly matched, so the battle for Europe gets heated as the season rolls on.
On the other end of the table is the battle for relegation. After each season, the bottom three clubs from the Premier League get dropped to the lower (Championship) division and the top three clubs from that league are promoted to the Premier League. This is to provide some "league churn" with new teams being elevated to the top flight each year, but for the last few years, teams like Sunderland and Birmingham have oscillated between the leagues, finishing at the top of the Championship one year and bottom of the Premiership the next.
The one exception to this is Wigan Athletic, who were promoted in 2005, and have managed to stay in the Premier League for three straight years. Wigan's promotion started when I started watching the EPL, so I've adopted them as one of my teams, but they really aren't very good, so I've also ended up adopting Chelsea. In sports, you don't choose your team, your team chooses you, and my interest in the EPL coincided with Chelsea being dominant. I'm trying to wean myself off the blues, but they're just the team I ended up following.
Anyway, here are my predictions for the various battles in the 2007/2008 Premier League.
The Big Four:
1. Chelsea
2. Manchester United
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
It's almost a cinch that these will be the top four clubs, and it's only a question of which order.
The UEFA Four:
5. Blackburn
6. Everton
7. Reading
8. Tottenham
The top four clubs that don't qualify for the Champions League qualify for the UEFA cup (European soccer's NIT tournament). These are my picks for the best non big-four clubs this season.
The Drop Zone:
17. Wigan
18. Birmingham
19. Derby
20. Sunderland
The bottom three are the same three clubs that were promoted to the Premier League this year. Birmingham and Sunderland are on the EPL-Championship pendelum, and Derby has never played at the top level. The one wildcard is Wigan, who have stayed up for the past three years despite all odds. Is this the year their luck runs out?
I'm going to try to make it out for more EPL matches at the Englander this year. There aren't that many opportunities to drink beer at 7:30am on a Saturday!
2 comments:
It'll be interesting to see if Tottenham can make it to the top four--they've got the stuff and Arsenal's without Henry. Reading and Everton will be ones to watch, too--good offseason moves and good momentum. Don't understimate Roy Keane's ability to keep Sunderland in the premiership either!
Roy Keane has the ability to get his guys to stick it to Tottenham, at least for one game.
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